Close-Kin CaPow!

This is a web app for close-kin capture-recapture study power analysis by simulation. It simulates datasets from capture-recapture studies of populations of animals over time, checks whether the simulations match certain predictions, fits close-kin and/or conventional capture- recapture models to the datasets, and analyses the resulting estimates. It is most applicable to 'whale-like' populations that have one or fewer offspring per year

Next simulation features

Features of next simulation implied by currently selected inputs.

Expected population size

Implied parameters

Predicted numbers of samples and kinpairs

Among sampled individuals

Among offset pairs

In population

Current simulation features

Features of current simulation, selected and implied.

Selected parameters

Implied parameters

Simulation options

Biological scenario

Datasets removed and retained

First study samples

Sample-histories from first population and study simulated.

First sample-histories

The data for the first few animals sampled in the study, by earliest birth year.

Sufficient statistics

Sufficient statistics for sample histories, used to fit popan models.

First study kin-pairs

Numbers of kin-pairs simulated in the first population and sampling study simulated.

Numbers of pairs among sampled individuals

Numbers of pairs of individuals with given relationships, where both are sampled in the given survey-year, or one individual is sampled in each of the given pair of survey-years. Total numbers sampled are included for reference.

Numbers of offset pairs among sampled individuals

Numbers of pairs of individuals with given relationships, where both are sampled in the given survey-year, or one individual is sampled in each of the given pair of survey-years. Total numbers sampled are included for reference.

Numbers of pairs in population

Numbers of pairs of individuals with given relationships, where both are alive in the given survey-year, or one individual is alive in each of the given pair of survey-years. Population sizes are included for reference.

First study genetics

Genetic analysis of samples from first population and study simulated.

First sample genotypes

First few individuals sampled.

Allele frequencies

Relative frequencies, excluding samples from same animals in different surveys.

Genotype probabilities

Probabilities of possible genotypes assuming that genes are inherited with probabilities given by their frequencies above.

Genopair probabilities at first locus

Probabilities of all possible genopairs given each kinship.

Unrelated

Half-siblings

Parent-offspring

Self-resample

Genopair log-probabilities at first locus

Log-probabilities of all possible genopairs given each kinship.

Unrelated

Half-siblings

Parent-offspring

Self-resample

First sample genopair log-probabilities

Observed values for first few sample-pairs, over all loci.

All sample genopair log-probabilities

Observed values for all sample-pairs, over all loci.

First sample genopair probabilities

Possibly adjusted by a large positive factor to avoid underflow.

All pairs

Observed values for first few sample-pairs, over all loci.

Numbers of pairs with corresponding survey indices for first and second samples.

Offset pairs

Observed values for first few sample-pairs, over all loci (order is random to avoid bias due to age representation when individuals repeated to include pairs between surveys with different numbers of samples).

Numbers of pairs with corresponding survey indices for first and second samples.

Half-sibling vs unrelated pair PLODs

Observed values for all sample-pairs, over all loci.

First study likelihoods

Negative log-likelihood surface over each parameter while others held at true values.

First study estimates

Parameter and kinpair probability estimates for first simulated study. Close-kin models include self, parent-offspring, and half-sibling pairs.

Parameter estimates

Kinpair probabilities given true parameter values

From kin pair numbers checks

From TMB objective function

Kinpair probabilities given estimated parameter values

From full true kinship model

From offset true kinship model

From full genopair model

From offset genopair model

Population sizes

Numbers of individuals that are alive in the population.

Whole simulation

In survey-years

Values

Biases

Errors

Unknown parents

The first generation is simulated with unknown parents. These individuals affect the observed numbers of kin-pairs, as parent-offspring pairs among them, and sibling-pairs including them, are both unknown. This causes the appearance of prediction error, so it should be taken into account when evaluating predictor performance.

Below are the average percentages of individuals with unknown parents, that are alive in survey-years, and pairs of survey-years. The observed numbers of pairs of individuals, including one or more with unknown parents, will be added soon.

All pairs

Total numbers of pairs of individuals.

Within survey-years

Pairs in which both individuals are alive in the same survey-year.

Values

Biases

Errors

Between two survey-years

Pairs in which one individual is alive in each of two different survey-years.

Values

Biases

Errors

Self-pairs

Numbers of pairs of individuals that are the same individual alive in two different survey-years.

All self-pairs

These include individuals with unknown parents (see unknown parents tab)

Values

Biases

Errors

Self-pairs with known parents

These are excluded when counting sibling-pairs from different survey-years (see unknown parents tab).

Values

Biases

Errors

Parent-offspring pairs

Numbers of pairs of individuals that are parent and offspring.

Within survey-years

Pairs in which both individuals are alive in the same survey-year.

Values

Biases

Errors

Between two survey-years

Pairs in which one individual is alive in each of two different survey-years.

Values

Biases

Errors

Same-mother pairs

Numbers of pairs of individuals with the same mother.

Within survey-years

Pairs in which both individuals are alive in the same survey-year.

Values

Biases

Errors

Between two survey-years

Pairs in which one individual is alive in each of two different survey-years.

Values

Biases

Errors

Same-father pairs

Numbers of pairs of individuals with the same father.

Within survey-years

Pairs in which both individuals are alive in the same survey-year.

Values

Biases

Errors

Between two survey-years

Pairs in which one individual is alive in each of two different survey-years.

Values

Biases

Errors

Full-sibling pairs

Numbers of pairs of individuals with the same parents.

Within survey-years

Pairs in which both individuals are alive in the same survey-year.

Values

Biases

Errors

Between two survey-years

Pairs in which one individual is alive in each of two different survey-years.

Values

Biases

Errors

Half-sibling pairs

Numbers of pairs of individuals that share exactly one parent.

Within survey-years

Pairs in which both individuals are alive in the same survey-year.

Values

Biases

Errors

Between two survey-years

Pairs in which one individual is alive in each of two different survey-years.

Values

Biases

Errors

Overall biases

Average proportional differences between numbers simulated and predicted, over survey-years and pairs of survey-years. Some of these differences are affected by individuals with unknown parents (see unknown parents tab), so these are also reported below. The prediction for the total number of pairs of individuals (all pairs) seems to show a consistent difference. The number of full-sibling pairs is much smaller than the others so the proportional difference from the prediction seems to be more variable.

Unknown parents

Average percentages of individuals with unknown parents, that are alive in survey-years, and pairs of survey-years.

Numbers of pairs within survey-years (whole population)

Numbers of pairs of individuals with given relationships, where both are alive in the same survey-year. Population sizes are included for reference.

Numbers of pairs between survey-years (whole population)

Numbers of pairs of individuals with given relationships, where one individual is alive in each of a pair of survey-years.

Fit models

Compare model performance

Model fitting

Estimator performance

Bias

Coefficient of variation

Estimates/errors

95% confidence interval coverage

95% confidence intervals for lambda

Save results

Download

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